In its analysis, Per Capita underscores how those in their late 20s and early 30s have seen a significant decrease in homeownership. Historical data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals a steep fall from 64% in 1971 to just 50% in 2021 for individuals aged 30 to 34 owning a home. Similarly, homeownership for 25 to 29-year-olds plummeted from 50% to 36% in the same span.
The core issue, as outlined by Per Capita, is the widening gap between wages and rapidly escalating home prices. In the early 1970s, it was common for wages to keep pace with house prices, allowing for homeownership within five years of dedicated saving. However, over the last decade, this balance has shifted dramatically, with wages lagging behind the sharp increase in property costs.
From 2012 to 2022, young Australians reportedly faced what Per Capita terms a "lost decade" of wage stagnation. The implications are clear: individuals were not only missing out on the ability to save for a home deposit but also saw their borrowing capacity diminish.
The switch in wage and home price dynamics is stark. While nominal wages doubled between 2003 and 2024, house prices surged by nearly threefold. According to Per Capita's estimates, workers lost on average $4,990 per year, amounting to a cumulative financial hit of $54,000 over the decade. These financial constraints have stymied the ability to save for home deposits drastically.
Per Capita points to historical policy decisions, specifically the Coalition’s Work Choices legislation, as a factor suppressing wage growth. However, they suggest a positive shift, as the current wage growth trajectory suggests improvements, albeit with recovery from the stagnation labeled as a long-term challenge.
Amid these criticisms, Per Capita overlooks other factors impacting young Australians' housing affordability, such as high immigration levels. They argue that increased immigration pressures the housing market, drives up rents, requires larger deposits, and intensifies labor market competition, which could suppress wage growth further.
Moving forward, addressing this multifaceted issue will require actions that consider wage growth, housing policy, and immigration to enhance prospects for young Australians. As the economy continues to evolve, the need for strategic policy interventions to secure sustainable and equitable economic participation remains critical.
