According to NAB's projections, the RBA is expected to implement a 25 basis point increase in February, followed by another in May, potentially bringing the cash rate to 4.10% by mid-year. This stance diverges from earlier expectations of a prolonged hold on rates.
The revision is influenced by recent economic data indicating stronger-than-anticipated inflation and consumer spending. NAB's economists suggest that the RBA may find it necessary to tighten monetary policy to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched above the target range.
For consumers and businesses, these anticipated rate hikes could lead to higher borrowing costs. Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages may experience increased monthly repayments, while businesses might face elevated financing expenses. On the other hand, savers could benefit from improved returns on deposits.
It's important to note that NAB's forecast contrasts with market expectations, which currently lean towards a more extended period of rate stability. This discrepancy highlights the uncertainty surrounding the RBA's future policy decisions and the broader economic trajectory.
In conclusion, NAB's prediction of two RBA rate hikes in 2026 underscores the bank's proactive approach to addressing inflation concerns. Australians are encouraged to stay informed about potential changes in monetary policy and consider their financial strategies accordingly.
Published: Wednesday 18th February, 2026
Please Note: If this information affects you or is relevant to your circumstances, seek advice from a licensed professional.
