The proposed reduction would bring the rate to 4.25%, aligning closely with the neutral range of 3% to 4%, just prior to the extended summer hiatus. ASB Bank has remarked, “the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October and is the least-regrets path at present.”
ASB highlights, “With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that.” These actions would ensure the official cash rate remains above the estimated 'neutral' level, granting room for adjustments in response to any unexpected inflationary pressures.
According to financial market predictions on Monday, an anticipatory adjustment of 96 basis points is forecasted through the November and February meetings, suggesting an additional likely 50 basis points reduction in February.
Despite the speculation, ASB maintains a projection of a more moderate 25 basis points cut in February, with subsequent decreases at following meetings. The bank asserts, “With the process of monetary policy normalisation largely complete, we expect a higher hurdle to OCR moves over 2025. The speed of future cuts is likely to slow back down over 2025.”
The prospect of ongoing reductions will rely heavily on upcoming financial insights and occurrences. ASB bankers anticipate that the Reserve Bank will signal this in its forthcoming communications. ASB stands by its forecast that, starting 2025, the Reserve Bank might initiate four consecutive 25 basis point deductions, eventually settling the rate at 3.25%.
This expected trajectory remains mostly in line with the 3% endpoint conveyed in preceding Monetary Policy Statements from the Reserve Bank. As noted by ASB, “However, it will be the evolution of the economy and inflation pressures relative to the Reserve Bank’s current expectations that dictates the pace, and we see risks in both directions.”
As sourced from previous reports, including those in reputable financial outlets, the key emphasis remains on responsiveness to future economic indicators and global financial conditions. With the Reserve Bank playing a critical role, the path of the official cash rate will be pivotal in steering New Zealand's economic course over the coming years.
