Despite a material increase in portfolio yields following the 2022 bond market sell-off, cash distributions have averaged less than 1% over the last three years. In contrast, the median yield-to-maturity (YTM) rate for portfolios has more than doubled from 2.0% to 4.4% since the end of the financial year 2022. While acknowledging YTM as an imperfect predictor of future distributions, Zenith points out that it remains a vital tool for fund managers assessing future returns.

This discrepancy presents significant challenges for investors dependent on income, particularly retirees who depend on bond income to fund their lifestyles and pension payments. Zenith reports that financial advisers are being pushed to seek alternative income sources, sometimes requiring the sale of defensive and growth assets to meet cash flow obligations.

Two primary factors contribute to the decline in income distributions for Australian bond investors: a weakening Australian dollar and heightened bond market activity. The loss from currency depreciation is mainly due to timing mismatches between short-term FX forwards and the longer holding periods of bonds. Furthermore, increased bond market activity has led to more frequent trading and portfolio adjustments, resulting in trading losses that can offset income.

To address the challenge of currency movements impacting income distributions, Zenith suggests portfolio managers consider making a taxation of financial arrangements (TOFA) election. This involves aligning FX gains or losses with the financial year when the bond is sold or matures. However, successfully implementing TOFA elections is complex and requires significant investment in back-office processes, a deterrent for many global bond managers.

For enhanced income stability, Zenith recommends managers reduce active trading, minimize portfolio turnover, and prioritize distribution stability over achieving outperformance. Although feasible, these strategies may conflict with a manager's broader performance goals. To prioritize stable income distributions, Zenith advises managers to:

  • Focus on domestic fixed income with minimal non-AUD holdings.
  • Consider TOFA elections, while being mindful that a 'fair value' election may not mitigate distribution volatility.
  • Evaluate master/feeder fund structures for offshore currency hedging in tax-efficient jurisdictions.