The strengthening US dollar, as depicted by the DXY index, has persisted in its upward trajectory, exerting significant pressure on the Australian currency. Meanwhile, other regions like China are maintaining a steady hold on their currencies for strategic positioning.
A recent employment report, the ADP® National Employment Report released by collaboration between ADP and Stanford Digital Economy Lab, indicated an increase of 146,000 jobs in November. According to the report, "While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed." Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, highlighted that manufacturing exhibited the weakest performance since spring.
There is ongoing speculation regarding the extent to which a soaring DXY could affect output, with market watchers awaiting further insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ upcoming reports.
Comparisons are being drawn with the economic landscape of 2018. Back then, the US economy was recovering with accelerated inflation leading to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 125 basis points. In contrast, projections for 2025 suggest a slowdown in both growth and inflation. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates, reflecting a different approach compared to previous years.
Genre-based economic policies, such as tariffs seen back in 2018, had previously bolstered US growth and inflation. The landscape for 2025, however, is expected to be marked by stagflationary pressures, which could present challenges in the Fed's easing strategies. Added currency strength, particularly in the USD, heightens the potential impact of verbal interventions from policy makers to adjust currency flows.
Though the ongoing strength of the dollar remains a key factor, some analysts remain optimistic that there might be an eventual leveling off in currency values. As Credit Suisse recently commented, the economic indicators serve as a timely reminder that the DXY will ultimately stabilize, allowing the Australian dollar to rebound. It’s a delicate balance of weighing current policies against the anticipated market corrections.
