While the 1 July 2024 tax cuts might offer a temporary boost to consumer spending, it's expected this effect will be largely counterbalanced by the diminishing savings, according to CBA. Consequently, the overall household consumption growth is projected to stay below trend until the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) initiates an easing cycle.
CBA predicts a 1.25% monetary easing to commence from November 2024, but this could possibly be postponed to 2025. Key factors influencing consumer confidence are directly linked to RBA's interest rate decisions, suggesting that household sentiment won't improve significantly until rates are lowered.
In their report, Aird and Wu highlight the extraordinary savings that Australians accumulated during the pandemic, reaching approximately A$300 billion, or around 20% of annual household disposable income. This figure aligns with RBA's estimates and reflects a behavior of conservative spending and robust saving unwitnessed since pre-GFC times.
Historical data shows that Australian households typically exhibit a positive savings rate, deviating only in unique periods like pre-GFC when various economic dynamics such as strong consumer sentiment and rapid credit growth prevailed. Conversely, the past 18 months have seen consumer confidence at rock-bottom and credit growth lagging behind income growth.
Since late 2022, households began drawing down their excess savings. By Q1 2024, approximately A$140 billion of 'other' savings had been spent, leaving around A$80 billion remaining. Meanwhile, excess payments into mortgage offset and redraw facilities have continued to rise, indicating a cautious approach towards financial buffers amidst rising interest rates.
This cautiousness is vital as Australia's economic environment remains strained. While the offset and redraw savings provide a financial buffer, households show an aversion to further drawing down these reserves as mortgage rates have increased.
Though the upcoming tax cuts will offer some relief, the gradual depletion of pandemic savings means any positive impact will be limited. CBA expects household savings rates to improve in 2024/25, compared to 2023/24, as the temporary pandemic-era savings inflow ceases.
One potential game-changer lies in RBA's monetary policy. If the RBA cuts interest rates, disposable income will rise, improving consumer purchasing power and confidence. However, international markets have already priced in more aggressive rate cuts in regions like the US, UK, and Eurozone compared to Australia, reflecting uncertainty regarding RBA's forthcoming policy moves.
The essential takeaway from the CBA report is that for household spending to drive GDP growth to a more sustainable level, monetary policy needs to shift towards easing sooner rather than later. With soft private demand growth contrasting against stronger public demand, CBA suggests that the economic uplift from Stage 3 tax cuts will be muted as savings buffer depletes.
Furthermore, economic analyses show that current projections for household consumption might be overly optimistic given the significant role that recent savings have played. According to CBA, the RBA may need to reconsider its forecast, potentially underestimating the impact of savings drawdown and overstating the anticipated increase in spending from the tax cuts.
