The Australian government anticipates that the scheme will help buyers save around $1.5 billion in LMI premiums in its first year. However, the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) is warning that the initiative might leave first-time buyers economically disadvantaged due to heightened house prices. According to ICA CEO Andrew Hall, anticipated price rises could surpass the savings resulting from avoiding LMI, ultimately hindering first-time homeownership.
The ICA points out that on a typical $700,000 home, the initiative can save purchasers between $21,000 and $28,000 on LMI. However, the expected escalation in house prices—ranging from $37,100 to $69,300—could leave buyers financially behind by $16,100 to $41,300.
Hall advocates for more targeted aid, recommending measures such as asset testing for scheme recipients, transparent risk assessments, and systematic program reviews to ensure the scheme primarily aids those in true need. Without these adjustments, the program might primarily assist buyers who could already access property without assistance. This risks only marginally increasing home ownership rates from 66% to 67.2% over the next five years.
According to analysis by Lateral Economics, expanding the scheme may increase national property values by 3.5% to 6.6%, potentially pricing out up to 6,500 lower-income buyers in its initial phase, with the most significant impacts on homes priced near the scheme's limits, which will rise to $1.5 million in some urban areas.
Liberal housing spokesman Andrew Bragg criticised the scheme as a radical move that could transform the government into a de facto universal property insurer, potentially exposing taxpayers to substantial financial risks. He also voiced concerns that the initiative effectively nationalises lenders’ mortgage insurance for first-time buyers, arguing it might disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
Amidst widespread discussions, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese defended the scheme, emphasising its potential to reduce the deposit timeframe by up to six years, potentially saving buyers about $25,000 on mortgage insurance. Albanese reiterated the government's commitment to reducing barriers for first-home buyers as part of their electoral promise.
