Contrastingly, the value of structures has seen a modest ascent, climbing from 0.88 to just 1.04 times GDP within the same period. Analyst Cameron Kusher from Oz Property Insights points out that since the late 1990s, housing values have consistently outpaced GDP growth. Residential land now comprises 70.5% of Australia's overall housing value, with buildings forming the remaining 29.5%.
Kusher stresses the need to curb land value inflation to temper housing price spikes. He suggests that policymakers focus on reducing land costs and increasing availability to alleviate housing expenses sustainably. The escalation in land prices presents significant challenges for new housing developments, particularly as median lot prices have risen sharply across capital cities within the past decade, per CoreLogic (Cotality) data.
The HIA-Cotality Residential Land Report for Q1 2025 paints a grim picture, with Australia's median residential land price achieving a new peak of $372,620. This marks a 39.2% hike compared to 2019. Additionally, only 8,250 residential lots were purchased in the first quarter of 2025, the weakest sales quarter in 25 years.
This surge in land costs represents a substantial hurdle for housing construction, crucial to accommodating Australia's growing population. Buyers find themselves paying more for less, as median lot sizes decrease but prices per square metre climb. The imbalance between available land and rising demand could exacerbate the already severe affordability crisis.
Without an influx of "shovel-ready" land projects, rising housing demand—stoked by a robust population increase, tight job markets, and improving household incomes—is likely to direct focus to the established housing market. This shift not only amplifies property prices but also restricts new home construction, exacerbating supply issues.
The next steps include addressing the supply-demand imbalance by ensuring a healthy pipeline of development-ready lands complemented by proper infrastructure. At the government level, there's a need for strategic intervention, including a potential reevaluation of immigration policies to regulate demand.
Expectations are high that recent interest rate cuts could revitalise the market, drawing buyers back. However, as senior economist Tom Devitt highlights, without a sufficient land supply across Australian capitals and regions, potential new homebuyers will be pushed towards existing properties, further inflating prices.
Moving forward, decisive government action will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of surging land costs. Mobilising both policy and infrastructure development to stimulate land availability holds the potential to counter this housing affordability crisis.
