Despite the anticipated challenges, the full ramifications of tariff uncertainties may not be completely realized until the fiscal year 2026. Ler notes that while these pressures will affect fund managers, the immediate fiscal year should see manageable impacts. The growing volatility and priced-in rate cuts are expected to dampen business momentum, with fee compression and investment in growth impeding earnings advancement.
A trend of market share loss is visible among the covered fund managers, with companies such as GQG, Perpetual, Magellan, and Platinum expected to see net outflows persisting over the coming five years. Yet, despite potential near-term earnings challenges from tariffs, Morningstar's fair value estimates for firms like Challenger, GQG, Insignia, Magellan, Perpetual, Pinnacle, and Platinum remain unchanged.
The analysis reflects that these forecasts account for weaker market returns and fund flows in the short term. Historical patterns from fiscal years 2020 to 2024 demonstrate a trend of investor pessimism giving way to increased risk appetite once uncertainties and volatility diminish.
Even within this challenging landscape, Morningstar identifies Perpetual and Insignia as good value at present prices. Perpetual is expected to gain from cost reductions, fund compounding, and stable corporate trust earnings, whereas Insignia might benefit from moderated fee compression, consistent fund flows, and eco-scalable cost adjustments.
