SQM Research has highlighted that their methodology tracks vendor asking prices, providing an advance insight into housing market trends. Historically, these figures have been indicative of the future trajectory of house prices. As per Domain, the median sold price for houses reached a record $1,645,400 in the last quarter of 2024.
The forecast for Sydney's housing market suggests further price hikes are likely. A combination of anticipated rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and significant policy initiatives promises continued growth in housing values. Financial markets project five rate cuts this year, which could lower the official cash rate to 2.85% by the year’s end. Additionally, the Albanese government has proposed a universal 5% housing deposit guarantee for first-time homebuyers, effective from January 2026.
Under Labor's proposed policy, the government will guarantee up to 15% of the loan value, allowing buyers to avoid the average $23,000 lenders’ mortgage insurance cost. As Sydney's population could reach over 8 million by the 2060s due to sustained overseas migration, the demand for housing in the city is expected to intensify.
The increasing population is likely to result in a trend towards higher density living, with apartments gradually replacing single detached houses. This transition will further amplify housing values in the city.
The surge in Sydney's housing prices reflects broader economic policies and market dynamics. The anticipated decrease in mortgage rates and the easing of housing access through policy reforms could continue to fuel the housing market's growth. This scenario is likely to strain affordability, impacting prospective homebuyers who may find the market increasingly inaccessible.
Looking ahead, the housing market is expected to keep climbing, especially as supportive economic conditions persist. The impact of government policy on housing affordability, particularly for first-time buyers, will be central to future discussions as these initiatives take effect. Moreover, as Sydney becomes denser, strategic urban planning will be critical to maintaining the city's liveability amidst rising population pressures.
