The downturn is particularly pronounced in the manufacturing and retail sectors, which showed the weakest performance in goods production and distribution. Conversely, the services sectors are holding strong, indicating disparities in economic resilience within the different sectors. NAB's findings further revealed that all sub-components of business conditions are now at or below average levels.
Geographically, South Australia and Victoria experienced the weakest conditions, while Queensland was the sole state to exhibit an improvement. "Confidence fell sharply in November and is now back below average," stated NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. He acknowledged the persistent trend of below-average business confidence despite last month's optimistic observations.
The survey's negative sentiment is echoed in declining forward orders from the mining and retail industries, sectors that have lagged behind the long-term average throughout most of the year. However, service sectors such as recreation, finance, and property services continue to perform well above their counterparts.
On a positive note, capacity utilisation remains robust at 82.4%, surpassing the long-term average. Capital expenditure has also increased by 10 points, indicating sustained investment activity. Additionally, consumer prices show potential disinflationary trends, with retail prices taking a 0.6% dip and recreation and personal services seeing a 0.7% decline. Overall, output price growth held stable at a quarterly 0.6%.
Mr. Oster highlighted the mixed economic signals: "Overall, the survey points to ongoing soft growth in Q4 though with capacity utilisation unchanged at an above-average level. It will likely take more time for price pressures to fully normalise."
These developments emerge in the context of NAB's Australian housing market analysis, which, alongside data from CoreLogic, alludes to a correction phase for the real estate market as December progresses.
The report indicated that house values in four out of eight capitals decreased, led by Melbourne. Despite 22 consecutive months of growth previously, November's overall house price increase stirred faintly at just 0.1%. Notably, Perth stood out with a 1.1% increase, reflecting annual growth of 3% for the quarter, albeit much lower than earlier figures.
Highlights revealed muted growth in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, contrasting with declines in Melbourne, Darwin, and Sydney where high-end properties faced more significant depreciations. A persistent increment in regional housing, recording a 1.1% rise over three months, shows diversification in house price trends nationally.
Factors such as rising inventory levels, particularly visible in Sydney and Melbourne, underscore shifting dynamics; listings across major cities have surged 16% this quarter. This is met with a decline in home sales, particularly felt in Sydney.
With rental prices continuing their climb—albeit at a slower pace—Tim Lawless of CoreLogic states, "Housing markets are likely to be arriving in 2025 on relatively weaker footing, with value growth losing steam...advertised stock levels rising, unaffordability at record highs, and demand no longer keeping pace with the flow of new listings." Until interest rates fall, pressure on housing trends appears unlikely to ease significantly.
