During the recent meeting, the RBA emphasized the current inflation rate, at 3.5%, as a pressing issue, fueled partly by vigorous government spending. This has sustained high aggregate demand and kept the unemployment figures low, which are expectedly robust conditions.
Providing a ray of optimism, the NAB business survey released earlier this week reveals encouraging signs for the RBA’s fight against inflation. The survey indicates a notable slowdown in labor cost growth throughout October, a potential harbinger for reduced inflation in Australia’s service sectors.
Sharing insights on this survey, Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro observed that Australian businesses have seen a decline in the rate of increase for output prices and purchase costs. Particularly, the growth in purchase costs regressed to levels last seen during the two decades spanning 2000 to 2019.
This slowdown in key areas as cited by Fabo could be instrumental for underlying inflation trends. Historically, stable to lower purchase costs have corresponded with reduced inflationary pressure on the broader economy.
Additionally, charts comparing these metrics with Australia's trimmed mean inflation indicate a potential continuation of the disinflationary process. The current data from the NAB business survey, depicting reduced pressure on firm output prices, offers a positive sign for further easing inflationary trends.
The report's implications extend to future policy considerations. Current projections from futures markets suggest that the first potential interest rate adjustment might not occur until the middle of next year. These forecasts are being cautiously monitored by stakeholders ahead of key political milestones, including the upcoming May 2025 election.
With the backdrop of these developments, the Albanese administration is hoping that signals from the NAB business survey reflect genuinely easing inflationary pressures across the board, creating an economic environment conducive to earlier interest rate cuts.
As noted in the original article from Antipodean Macro, these trends will likely be critical in shaping both economic strategy and political discourse in the months to come.
