This monthly CPI report will be the last inflation update before the RBA's upcoming cash rate meeting on September 24. Analysts are cautious, however, indicating that the marginal CPI dip might not be enough to sway a rate cut in September. The subsequent monthly update and more comprehensive quarterly data are due later this year, shedding more light on inflation trends.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) identified a significant contributor to the CPI fall: the federal government's $300 energy bill relief fund. This subsidy slashed household electricity costs, up to $75 per quarter, rolling out first in Western Australia and Queensland, with other states to follow.
Warren Hogan, chief economist at Judo Bank, lauded the subsidy’s immediate impact on cost reduction but pointed out its temporary nature. "Government interventions like these offer short-term relief but don’t address the underlying issue," Mr. Hogan told Sky News. "They might help with living costs now, but inflate long-term expectations."
Mr. Hogan also noted, "Without factoring in the rebate, inflation remains stagnant. Homeowners awaiting rate cuts might be disappointed unless unforeseen circumstances prompt the RBA."
David Bassanese, Betashares' chief economist, agreed the subsidy likely reduced inflation by about 0.2%, cautioning that electricity prices may rebound once the subsidy phase ends. "The RBA isn't likely deceived by these temporary fixes. Sustained reduction in underlying inflation is essential before they consider altering the cash rate," Bassanese remarked.
On the contrary, Treasurer Jim Chalmers stood by the subsidies, emphasizing their role in reducing living costs and countering inflationary pressures. "Assistance with electricity bills is neither artificial nor insignificant—our approach is yielding tangible benefits in curbing inflation," Chalmers argued.
However, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor criticized the government's performance, pointing out persistent high costs in housing, food, and transport. "Despite superficial gains, Australia’s inflation is still alarmingly high compared to global counterparts," Taylor remarked. He called on the government for more substantive measures to address "the root of the inflation challenge."
According to ABS acting head of price statistics, Leigh Merrington, volatile items like fuel and fresh produce often distort CPI figures. Excluding such variables, July's underlying inflation stood at 3.7%, a modest drop from June's 4.0%. Still above the RBA’s 2-3% target, these readings fuel mixed feelings about imminent rate cuts. While some anticipate a pre-Christmas cash rate reduction, others, including RBA Governor Michele Bullock, counsel patience.
During August’s rate meeting, Bullock maintained rates at 4.35%, stressing that tackling stubborn inflation remains paramount. “We aim for a narrow path to lower inflation without sparking a recession. Many Australians are struggling, but curbing inflation is essential for long-term economic stability,” Bullock reiterated.
Financial experts and homeowners alike await the forthcoming data releases, which will potentially shape the economic trajectory in coming months. Originally sourced from the August 2024 article in NCA NewsWire by Jessica Wang.
