Recent data from CoreLogic reveals that after years of aggressive rent hikes, growth has slowed to 0.4% monthly, the lowest rate since September 2023. In contrast, a detailed analysis suggests that rental prices are significantly outpacing income growth, leading to heightened financial stress for many households.
CoreLogic's findings demonstrate a disparity in rental increases between various housing types. Over the past two years, national unit rents surged by 22%, surpassing the 16% rise observed in house rents. This disproportionate growth has led to a scenario where the median income household must allocate a record 32.2% of their gross annual income toward rent, a peak value in affordability metrics till March.
Additional insights from SQM Research corroborate this trend, showcasing a similar slowdown in rental increases for both houses and units. Notably, the last two years have seen an extraordinary spike in rents, especially within the detached housing sector. Financial commentator Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro highlights this trend with statistical data, which indicates a significant reduction in the growth rate of asking rents.
A persistent issue contributing to spiraling rents is the mismatch between population growth, primarily driven by net overseas migration, and the pace of new housing construction. Despite a deceleration in rental growth, the demand fueled by high migration continues to outstrip the supply of new dwellings, thereby sustaining upward pressure on rents.
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver remarked last month that the decline in the average household size observed over recent years might exacerbate the current housing shortfall. The shortage could reach around 300,000 dwellings, surpassing levels from before the unit construction boom started around 2015. This assertion underscores the broader challenge facing the Australian rental market.
The resultant housing deficit and heightened demand not only tighten the rental market but also contribute to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Rents constitute approximately 6% of the CPI basket, meaning that as rental costs climb, their impact on overall inflation becomes more pronounced.
As observed by CoreLogic and AMP experts, the only sustainable resolution lies in synchronizing net migration levels with the nation's capacity to expand its housing and infrastructure. Until such equilibrium is achieved, the disparity within the rental market will likely persist, exacerbating the financial pressures on Australian renters and amplifying economic inequality.
